New Study by University of Vermont : Climate Change Could Outpace EPA Lake Champlain Protections

New research by University of Vermont suggests that Lake Champlain may be more susceptible to damage from climate change than was previously understood—and that, therefore, the rules created by the EPA to protect the lake may be inadequate to prevent algae blooms and water quality problems as the region gets hotter and wetter.

“This paper provides very clear evidence that the lake could be far more sensitive to climate change than is captured by the current approach of the EPA,” said University of Vermont professor Asim Zia, the lead author of the new study. “We may need more interventions—and this may have national significance for how the agency creates regulations.”

 The research was published November 17 in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

More than modest

The study, led by a team of ten scientists from UVM and one from Dartmouth College, used a powerful set of computer models that link the behavior of social and ecological systems. Their results show that accelerating climate change could easily outpace the EPA’s land-use management policies aimed at reducing the inflow of pollution from agricultural runoff, parking lots, deforestation, cow manure, lawn fertilizer, pet waste, streambank erosion—and other sources of excess phosphorus that cause toxic algae and lake health problems.

The EPA’s modeling to prepare its rules under what’s called the TMDL, for “total maximum daily load,” concluded that “any increases in the phosphorus loads to the lake due to the climate change are likely to be modest (i.e. 15%),” the agency writes. But the eleven scientists, within the Vermont EPSCoR program at UVM, who led the new modeling were concerned that this approach might underestimate the range of likely outcomes in a warmer future.  

UVM professor Chris Koliba, a co-author and social scientist on the new study observed that, “there have been extensive efforts by federal regulators, the State of Vermont, and many other stakeholders to try to remediate and improve water quality in our watersheds. These should be honored. The message of our research is not to demean that work, but to say that in the long run protecting the lake is going to take a lot more than what's being proposed right now.”

Limited options

The new lake model, with support from the National Science Foundation, integrates a much larger assembly of possible global climate change models and greenhouse gas pathways than the current TMDL approach used in its modeling. And the Vermont scientists delved deeply into the indirect and interactive effects of land use changes, “legacy phosphorus” that’s been piling up for decades in the sediment at the bottom of the lake, and other factors. From this, they created a set of forecasts for what might happen to Lake Champlain over the next few decades out to 2040—including changes in water quality, temperature, and the severity of algae blooms.  Their result: a much more dramatic range of possible outcomes—and greater uncertainty—than those assumed in the EPA’s approach.

In several of the plausible hotter and wetter scenarios that the model considers, a cascading set of problems could lead to phosphorous pollution levels in segments of Lake Champlain that “drastically limit land management options to maintain water quality,” the team wrote—especially in shallow bays like Missisquoi Bay that was the focus of the new study. In the long run, the risk of underestimating the impacts of climate change could lead to what the scientists call “intractable eutrophic conditions”—a permanent change in the lake that leads to self-perpetuating algae blooms, lost fisheries, and poor water quality.

New tool

The new integrated assessment model created by the NSF-funded team under the science leadership of Asim Zia provides a powerful tool that goes far beyond understanding Lake Champlain.

By connecting sub-models—of human behavior and land use, watershed dynamics, global climate models “downscaled” to the local region, and the hydrology of the lake itself—the overall model links together “the behavior of the watershed, lake, people and climate,” said Judith Van Houten, UVM professor of biology, director of Vermont EPSCoR, and co-author on the new study. This provides “a way forward to pull back the veil that often surrounds effects of climate change,” she says.

“Integrating these models is an enormous achievement that will be exportable across the US and be of practical use to many states and countries as they try to develop policies in the face of climate change,” she said. It can allow lake and land managers to test scenarios that draw in a huge range of time scales and types of interactions, ranging from water chemistry to air temperature to land use policies.

Only by solving this kind of model-of-many-models problem, “as we have done,” Van Houten said, could a tool be created that has predictive power for decades ahead, “allowing stakeholders to test their ideas,” she says, and even “describing the health of the lake out to the turn of the century.”

UVM hydrologist Arne Bomblies, a co-author on the study, noted that, “We show through this modeling work the importance of a more comprehensive consideration of climate change impact mechanisms to achieve water quality goals, and the need to adequately address climate change uncertainty.”

 “Lake Champlain’s future is sensitive to climate change,” Bomblies said, “and similar challenges are faced by other impaired waters throughout the United States.”

From University of Vermont. Original written by Joshua E. Brown.

Newly Discovered Receptors in Plants Help Them Recover from Environmental Changes, Pests, and Plant Wounds, MU Study Shows

Discovery could lead to herbicides, fertilizers and pesticides that naturally work with plants to make them stronger

COLUMBIA, Mo. – ATP (adenosine triphosphate) is the main energy source inside a cell and is considered to be the high energy molecule that drives all life processes in animals and humans. Outside the cell, membrane receptors that attract ATP drive muscle control, neurotransmission, inflammation and development.  Now, researchers at the University of Missouri have found the same receptor in plants and believe it to be a vital component in the way plants respond to dangers, including pests, environmental changes and plant wounds. This discovery could lead to herbicides, fertilizers and insect repellants that naturally work with plants to make them stronger.

Study shows resources giveaway in Latin America; Outdated model tramples human rights, environment

A new study reveals that governments in Latin America have returned to natural resources extraction to fuel development—while paying scant attention to the impact mining, oil exploration and other activities have on the environment or on the people who own the land. The study, which reported on both domestic and international investments, was released at the 14th Rights and Resources Initiative Dialogue on Forests, Governance, and Climate Change bringing stakeholders and indigenous, Afro-descendant and rural community leaders from 13 nations to Bogotá this week.

"We seem to have returned to an almost colonial mentality," said Margarita Florez, Executive Director, Asociación Ambiente y Sociedad, whose study reviewed the recent activities impacts of extractive activities on lands owned by Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and other forest communities in Colombia, Panama and Guatemala. "Our governments are being shortsighted. They are undervaluing renewable resources such as forests and water, and are putting the rights of foreign investors before those who have lived and worked the land for generations."

Airborne Technology Helps Manage Elephants

For years, scientists have debated how big a role elephants play in toppling trees in South African savannas. Tree loss is a natural process, but it is increasing in some regions, with cascading effects on the habitat for many other species. Using high resolution 3-D mapping, Carnegie scientists have for the first time quantitatively determined tree losses across savannas of Kruger National Park. They found that elephants are the primary agents—their browsing habits knock trees over at a rate averaging 6 times higher than in areas inaccessible to them. The research also found that elephants prefer toppling trees in the 16-to-30 foot (5-8 m) range, with annual losses of up to 20% in these height classes. The findings, published in Ecology Letters, bolster our understanding of elephant conservation needs and their impacts, and the results could help to improve savanna management practices.

How iron reacts in the environment?

Using ultrafast X-rays, scientists for the first time have watched how quickly electrons hop their way through rust nanoparticles.This gives key insight to how iron oxide, one of the most abundant minerals in soil, behaves and alters the condition of soil and water around it. This also demonstrates the potential of time-resolved X-ray and optical methods to study chemical reactions at the subnanoscale in other semiconductors.

Scientists have long known that certain minerals, redox active ions and biological proteins can exchange electrons to initiate chemical changes in the mineral. But the process of how electrons hop from atom to atom inside a nanoparticle to facilitate change has been too fast to see until now. The same process controls charge collection in solar energy devices involving metal oxides, and thus this work may have relevance to new energy technologies.

Chemical found in crude oil linked to congenital heart disease

While it may be years before the health effects of the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico are known, a new study shows that fetal exposure to a chemical found in crude oil is associated with an increased risk of congenital heart disease (CHD).
The study, to be presented Saturday, April 30, at the Pediatric Academic Societies (PAS) annual meeting in Denver, also showed that babies who had been exposed in utero to a chemical found in cleaning agents and spot removers were at increased risk of CHD.
Environmental causes of CHD have been suspected, and animal studies have suggested certain chemicals may cause CHD, a problem with the heart's structure and function due to abnormal heart development before birth.
"Congenital heart disease is a major cause of childhood death and life-long health problems," said D. Gail McCarver, MD, FAAP, lead author of the study and professor of pediatrics at the Medical College of Wisconsin and Children's Research Institute, Milwaukee. "Thus, identifying risk factors contributing to CHD is important to public health."

Algae and bacteria hogged oxygen after ancient mass extinction, slowing recovery of marine life

A mass extinction is hard enough for Earth's biosphere to handle, but when you chase it with prolonged oxygen deprivation, the biota ends up with a hangover that can last millions of years.
Such was the situation with the greatest mass extinction in Earth's history 250 million years ago, when 90 percent of all marine animal species were wiped out, along with a huge proportion of plant, animal and insect species on land.
A massive amount of volcanism in Siberia is widely credited with driving the disaster, but even after the immense outpourings of lava and toxic gases tapered off, oxygen levels in the oceans, which had been depleted, remained low for about 5 million years, slowing life's recovery there to an unusual degree.
The reason for the lingering low oxygen levels has puzzled scientists, but now Stanford researchers have figured out what probably happened. By analyzing the chemical composition of some then-underwater limestone beds deposited over the course of the recovery in what is now southern China, they have determined that while it took several million years for most ecosystems in the ocean to recover, tiny single-celled algae and bacteria bounced back much more quickly.

Growing hypoxic zones reduce habitat for billfish and tuna

Billfish and tuna, important commercial and recreational fish species, may be more vulnerable to fishing pressure because of shrinking habitat, according to a new study published by scientists from NOAA, The Billfish Foundation, and University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.
An expanding zone of low oxygen, known as a hypoxic zone, in the Atlantic Ocean is encroaching upon these species' preferred oxygen-abundant habitat, forcing them into shallower waters where they are more likely to be caught.
During the study, published recently in the journal Fisheries Oceanography, scientists tagged 79 sailfish and blue marlin with satellite tracking devices in the western North Atlantic, off south Florida and the Caribbean; and eastern tropical Atlantic, off the coast of West Africa. The pop off archival satellite tags monitored horizontal and vertical movement patterns. Researchers confirmed that billfish prefer oxygen rich waters closer to the surface and will actively avoid waters low in oxygen.

The ethics of biofuels

In the world-wide race to develop energy sources that are seen as "green" because they are renewable and less greenhouse gas-intensive, sometimes the most basic questions remain unanswered.
In a paper released today by the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, authors Michal Moore, Senior Fellow, and Sarah M. Jordaan at Harvard University in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, look at the basic question of whether these energy sources are ethical.
In addition to arguing that the greenhouse gas benefits of biofuel are overstated by many policymakers, the authors argue that there are four questions that need to be considered before encouraging and supporting the production of more biofuel.

Leaking underground CO2 storage could contaminate drinking water

Leaks from carbon dioxide injected deep underground to help fight climate change could bubble up into drinking water aquifers near the surface, driving up levels of contaminants in the water tenfold or more in some places, according to a study by Duke University scientists.
Based on a year-long analysis of core samples from four drinking water aquifers, "We found the potential for contamination is real, but there are ways to avoid or reduce the risk," says Robert B. Jackson, Nicholas Professor of Global Environmental Change and professor of biology at Duke.
"Geologic criteria that we identified in the study can help identify locations around the country that should be monitored or avoided," he says. "By no means would all sites be susceptible to problems of water quality."

Is the ice at the South Pole melting?

The change in the ice mass covering Antarctica is a critical factor in global climate events. Scientists at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences have now found that the year by year mass variations in the western Antarctic are mainly attributable to fluctuations in precipitation, which are controlled significantly by the climate phenomenon El Nino. They examined the GFZ data of the German-American satellite mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). The investigation showed significant regional differences in the western coastal area of the South Pole area.

Scientists issue call to action for archaeological sites threatened by rising seas

Should global warming cause sea levels to rise as predicted in coming decades, thousands of archaeological sites in coastal areas around the world will be lost to erosion. With no hope of saving all of these sites, archaeologists Torben Rick from the Smithsonian Institution, Leslie Reeder of Southern Methodist University, and Jon Erlandson of the University of Oregon have issued a call to action for scientists to assess the sites most at risk.
Writing in the Journal of Coastal Conservation and using California's Santa Barbara Channel as a case study, the researchers illustrate how quantifiable factors such as historical rates of shoreline change, wave action, coastal slope and shoreline geomorphology can be used to develop a scientifically sound way of measuring the vulnerability of individual archaeological sites. They then propose developing an index of the sites most at risk so informed decisions can be made about how to preserve or salvage them.

Drought may threaten much of globe within decades

The United States and many other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to results of a new study by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai.
The detailed analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years.
The drought may reach a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times.
Using an ensemble of 22 computer climate models and a comprehensive index of drought conditions, as well as analyses of previously published studies, the paper reports that by the 2030s, dryness is likely to increase substantially across most of the Western Hemisphere, along with large parts of Eurasia, Africa, and Australia.
By later this century, many of the world's most densely populated regions will be threatened with severe drought conditions.

A biological solution to animal pandemics

EUREKA project E! 4104 ECOPROMAT has developed a novel and environmentally-friendly type of matting for use in protection against the spread of contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, and for routine hygiene in animal and food production. Soaked with disinfectant solution, the matting can be used for disinfecting vehicle tyres, and the shoes and boots of personnel. As it is made of 100% natural fibres, it is highly absorbent to disinfectant solution; it is also fully biodegradable and therefore avoids the high disposal costs of synthetic alternatives. The under-surface is made of densely woven fabric for strength, and impregnated with natural resin to prevent seepage of disinfectant into the ground, or dilution of disinfectant by ground water.

Outbreaks of contagious animal diseases like avian flu, foot-and-mouth disease and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), cause national and regional public health authorities take extensive steps to prevent these diseases from spreading. The economic costs of such outbreaks are hard to estimate, but they can cause major disruption to agricultural production and food distribution, also environmental challenges in disposal of infected animals and contaminated materials; plus widespread public anxiety.

Superbugs that clean up environment

A contaminated site, of either terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems, that is polluted with toxic chemicals is deadly for the environment. The textile, leather, fertilizer and other industries are continuously releasing toxic pollut into our land and rivers, disturbing the normal balance of both the ecosystems which is alarming for a clean and healthy environment.
Although there are various ways to clean up the environment such as recycling the wastes, incineration or disposing the wastes and pollutants into landfill sites, the best and most eco-friendly way to clean up the pollutants is using the microorganisms, the process known as bioremediation. Genetically engineered microbes (GEMs) or the so called superbugs could be a very promising option to perform this job.
Don’t confuse this superbug with those resistant bacteria which are also called superbugs and are capable of resisting almost any antibiotics present to date and thus a major concern now in health sector. I will limit today’s discussion to the genetically engineered microbes with their promise for a better, cleaner and a greener environment.

Saving a million acre-feet of water through conservation and efficiency in California

A new analysis released today by the Pacific Institute recommends specific actions that can annually save a million acre-feet of water quickly and at a lower economic and ecological cost than developing new supplies. The assessment notes that new actions are immediately needed to reduce the growing tensions over the state's water resources and to address California's persistent water supply challenges.
This is a key time for California water: the California Water Bond has been tabled for at least two years and may be scrapped altogether. New reviews from around the state are calling for prompt efforts to use technology, economics, and institutional reform to address the state's water crisis. All parties seem to agree that the state will need a diverse portfolio of solutions – but it makes the most sense to do the most effective things first. The Pacific Institute's new report, California's Next Million Acre-Feet: Saving Water, Energy, and Money, quantifies more than one million acre-feet of water that can be conserved through improved efficiency, with savings coming from the urban and industrial sectors and improvements in agriculture.

Stanford land-use expert brings satellite data down to Earth

Stanford University geographer Eric Lambin and his colleagues are exploring the complex conditions that give rise to a broad range of land-use challenges – from the reforestation of Vietnam to the spread of Lyme disease in Belgium.
For decades, orbiting satellites have peered downward to gather information about the surface of the Earth, giving scientists an unprecedented view of the planet. Using this data, researchers have created maps of deforestation and other land-use changes over time.
Satellites are precise tools, able to measure the rate of photosynthesis in a tiny clump of trees in the heart of the Amazon Basin. But satellite technology reveals little about the people living beneath the canopy who decide the fate of the trees around them. For a deeper understanding of how and why humans alter their environment, researchers need to talk face-to-face with the people who live there.

Sea Levels Rising in Parts of Indian Ocean

Newly detected rising sea levels in parts of the Indian Ocean, including the coastlines of the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, Sri Lanka, Sumatra and Java, appear to be at least partly a result of human-induced increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases, says a study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.
The study, which combined sea surface measurements going back to the 1960s and satellite observations, indicates anthropogenic climate warming likely is amplifying regional sea rise changes in parts of the Indian Ocean, threatening inhabitants of some coastal areas and islands, said CU-Boulder Associate Professor Weiqing Han, lead study author. The sea level rise — which may aggravate monsoon flooding in Bangladesh and India — could have far-reaching impacts on both future regional and global climate.
The key player in the process is the Indo-Pacific warm pool, an enormous, bathtub-shaped area of the tropical oceans stretching from the east coast of Africa west to the International Date Line in the Pacific. The warm pool has heated by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, or 0.5 degrees Celsius, in the past 50 years, primarily caused by human-generated increases of greenhouse gases.

Breakthrough in jute research in BANGLADESH

Bangladeshi researchers have successfully decoded the jute plant genome opening up a new vista in the development of variety of the world’s most adorned biodegradable natural fibre.
Experts said this gene sequencing would help improve the fibre length and quality, including colours and strength; and develop high yielding, saline soil- and pest-tolerant jute varieties through genetic engineering.
With the successful sequencing of jute genome, Bangladesh becomes only the second country after Malaysia, among the developing nations, to achieve such a feat.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made the announcement of Bangladesh’s scientific achievement in the parliament yesterday amid cheers and desk thumping by lawmakers.

Let Bangladesh have a People's Biodiversity Register

KEITH A Wheeler, Chair of the Commission on Education and Communication of IUCN highlights: “Today's challenges are moving towards more sustainable financial and energy systems, food security and international security -- all these challenges ultimately depend on the services nature offers”. These services are mainly offered by biodiversity, although this is a critical period for it in this year (2010) of biodiversity.
Biodiversity is considered as the most important wealth for mankind. Countries like Bangladesh should derive economic benefits from their rich biodiversity resource base. Unfortunately there is no proper inventory and monitoring of the country's biodiversity. Documentation, monitoring and conservation of local biodiversity and indigenous knowledge should be considered as the thrust area of activities since the said tasks remain significantly incomplete in the country. This needs extensive countrywide activities. Bangladesh is a signatory to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which is in force since 1993 and is the most significant of the pertinent international agreements. However, there is hardly any action-oriented follow up since Bangladesh has become a party to CBD. We are yet to register country's biological diversity which India has already started in the name of People's Biodiversity Register.