New Study by University of Vermont : Climate Change Could Outpace EPA Lake Champlain Protections

New research by University of Vermont suggests that Lake Champlain may be more susceptible to damage from climate change than was previously understood—and that, therefore, the rules created by the EPA to protect the lake may be inadequate to prevent algae blooms and water quality problems as the region gets hotter and wetter.

“This paper provides very clear evidence that the lake could be far more sensitive to climate change than is captured by the current approach of the EPA,” said University of Vermont professor Asim Zia, the lead author of the new study. “We may need more interventions—and this may have national significance for how the agency creates regulations.”

 The research was published November 17 in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

More than modest

The study, led by a team of ten scientists from UVM and one from Dartmouth College, used a powerful set of computer models that link the behavior of social and ecological systems. Their results show that accelerating climate change could easily outpace the EPA’s land-use management policies aimed at reducing the inflow of pollution from agricultural runoff, parking lots, deforestation, cow manure, lawn fertilizer, pet waste, streambank erosion—and other sources of excess phosphorus that cause toxic algae and lake health problems.

The EPA’s modeling to prepare its rules under what’s called the TMDL, for “total maximum daily load,” concluded that “any increases in the phosphorus loads to the lake due to the climate change are likely to be modest (i.e. 15%),” the agency writes. But the eleven scientists, within the Vermont EPSCoR program at UVM, who led the new modeling were concerned that this approach might underestimate the range of likely outcomes in a warmer future.  

UVM professor Chris Koliba, a co-author and social scientist on the new study observed that, “there have been extensive efforts by federal regulators, the State of Vermont, and many other stakeholders to try to remediate and improve water quality in our watersheds. These should be honored. The message of our research is not to demean that work, but to say that in the long run protecting the lake is going to take a lot more than what's being proposed right now.”

Limited options

The new lake model, with support from the National Science Foundation, integrates a much larger assembly of possible global climate change models and greenhouse gas pathways than the current TMDL approach used in its modeling. And the Vermont scientists delved deeply into the indirect and interactive effects of land use changes, “legacy phosphorus” that’s been piling up for decades in the sediment at the bottom of the lake, and other factors. From this, they created a set of forecasts for what might happen to Lake Champlain over the next few decades out to 2040—including changes in water quality, temperature, and the severity of algae blooms.  Their result: a much more dramatic range of possible outcomes—and greater uncertainty—than those assumed in the EPA’s approach.

In several of the plausible hotter and wetter scenarios that the model considers, a cascading set of problems could lead to phosphorous pollution levels in segments of Lake Champlain that “drastically limit land management options to maintain water quality,” the team wrote—especially in shallow bays like Missisquoi Bay that was the focus of the new study. In the long run, the risk of underestimating the impacts of climate change could lead to what the scientists call “intractable eutrophic conditions”—a permanent change in the lake that leads to self-perpetuating algae blooms, lost fisheries, and poor water quality.

New tool

The new integrated assessment model created by the NSF-funded team under the science leadership of Asim Zia provides a powerful tool that goes far beyond understanding Lake Champlain.

By connecting sub-models—of human behavior and land use, watershed dynamics, global climate models “downscaled” to the local region, and the hydrology of the lake itself—the overall model links together “the behavior of the watershed, lake, people and climate,” said Judith Van Houten, UVM professor of biology, director of Vermont EPSCoR, and co-author on the new study. This provides “a way forward to pull back the veil that often surrounds effects of climate change,” she says.

“Integrating these models is an enormous achievement that will be exportable across the US and be of practical use to many states and countries as they try to develop policies in the face of climate change,” she said. It can allow lake and land managers to test scenarios that draw in a huge range of time scales and types of interactions, ranging from water chemistry to air temperature to land use policies.

Only by solving this kind of model-of-many-models problem, “as we have done,” Van Houten said, could a tool be created that has predictive power for decades ahead, “allowing stakeholders to test their ideas,” she says, and even “describing the health of the lake out to the turn of the century.”

UVM hydrologist Arne Bomblies, a co-author on the study, noted that, “We show through this modeling work the importance of a more comprehensive consideration of climate change impact mechanisms to achieve water quality goals, and the need to adequately address climate change uncertainty.”

 “Lake Champlain’s future is sensitive to climate change,” Bomblies said, “and similar challenges are faced by other impaired waters throughout the United States.”

From University of Vermont. Original written by Joshua E. Brown.

For 'greener' control measures Termite genome shows roadmap

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - A team of international researchers has sequenced the genome of the Nevada dampwood termite, providing an inside look into the biology of the social insect and uncovering new genetic targets for pest control.

Michael Scharf, a Purdue University professor of entomology who participated in the collaborative study, said the genome could help researchers develop control strategies that are more specific than the broad-spectrum chemicals conventionally used to treat termite infestations.

"The termite genome reveals many unique genetic targets that can be disrupted for better termite control," said Scharf, who is the O. Wayne Rollins/Orkin Chair in Molecular Physiology and Urban Entomology. "Depending on which gene or protein that is targeted, we could disrupt termites' neurological processes, molting, digestive factors or cuticle formation. We're just limited by our imagination."

Shrub growth decreases as winter temperatures fluctuate up

Many have assumed that warmer winters as a result of climate change would increase the growth of trees and shrubs because the growing season would be longer. But shrubs achieve less yearly growth when cold winter temperatures are interrupted by temperatures warm enough to trigger growth.

“When winter temperatures fluctuate between being cold and warm enough for growth, plants deplete their resources trying to photosynthesize and end the winter with fewer reserves than they initially had. In the summer they have to play catch up,” said Melanie Harsch, a University of Washington postdoctoral researcher in biology and applied mathematics. She is lead author of a paper on the subject recently published in PLOS One.

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Southern plants do better than Northern locals With climate changing

Can plants and animals evolve to keep pace with climate change? A study published May 19 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that for at least one widely-studied plant, the European climate is changing fast enough that strains from Southern Europe already grow better in the north than established local varieties.

Small and fast-growing, Arabidopsis thaliana is widely used as the “lab mouse” of plant biology. The plant grows in Europe from Spain to Scandinavia and because Arabidopsis is so well-studied, there is a reference collection of seeds derived from wild stocks across its native range. Originally collected from 20 to 50 years ago, these plants have since been maintained under controlled conditions in the seed bank.

Newly Discovered Receptors in Plants Help Them Recover from Environmental Changes, Pests, and Plant Wounds, MU Study Shows

Discovery could lead to herbicides, fertilizers and pesticides that naturally work with plants to make them stronger

COLUMBIA, Mo. – ATP (adenosine triphosphate) is the main energy source inside a cell and is considered to be the high energy molecule that drives all life processes in animals and humans. Outside the cell, membrane receptors that attract ATP drive muscle control, neurotransmission, inflammation and development.  Now, researchers at the University of Missouri have found the same receptor in plants and believe it to be a vital component in the way plants respond to dangers, including pests, environmental changes and plant wounds. This discovery could lead to herbicides, fertilizers and insect repellants that naturally work with plants to make them stronger.

More emphasis needed on recycling and reuse of Li-ion batteries

The discovery of potential environmental and human health effects from disposal of millions of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries each year has led scientists to recommend stronger government policies to encourage recovery, recycling and reuse of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery materials. That's the conclusion of a new paper in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.

Oladele A. Ogunseitan and colleagues point out that Li-ion batteries have become mainstays for powering everything from smart phones to components in new jetliners, with global sales approaching $8 billion annually. They realized that the short life span (2-4 years) of Li-ion batteries in portable electronic devices would make a huge contribution to the electronic waste problem, which already is the fastest growing form of solid waste. So they decided to see whether potentially toxic materials leach out and become a health and environmental threat after disposal.

Using standardized leaching tests, hazard assessment models and other methods for evaluating hazardous waste, the scientists showed that Li-ion batteries from cell phones would meet federal government definitions of hazardous waste because of lead content. California standards would classify them as hazardous due to cobalt, copper and nickel content. "These findings support the need for stronger government policy at the local, national, and international levels to encourage recovery, recycling, and reuse of lithium battery materials," their report states.

Global nitrogen availability consistent for past 500 years, linked to carbon levels

A Kansas State University research team has found that despite humans increasing nitrogen production through industrialization, nitrogen availability in many ecosystems has remained steady for the past 500 years. Their work appears in the journal Nature.

"People have been really interested in nitrogen in current times because it's a major pollutant," said Kendra McLauchlan, assistant professor of geography and director of the university's Paleoenvironmental Laboratory. "Humans are producing a lot more nitrogen than in the past for use as crop fertilizer, and there is concern because excess levels can cause damage. The mystery, though, is whether the biosphere is able to soak up this extra nitrogen and what that means for the future."

Nitrogen is a key component of the ecosystem and the largest regulator of plant growth. It determines how much food, fuel and fiber the land can produce. It also determines how much carbon dioxide plants remove from the atmosphere, and it interacts with several components of the climate system. Excessive amounts of nitrogen in ecosystems contribute to global warming and impairment of downstream ecosystems.

Before Dinosaurs' Era, Volcanic Eruptions Triggered Mass Extinction

More than 200 million years ago, a massive extinction decimated 76 percent of marine and terrestrial species, marking the end of the Triassic period and the onset of the Jurassic.

The event cleared the way for dinosaurs to dominate Earth for the next 135 million years, taking over ecological niches formerly occupied by other marine and terrestrial species.

It's not clear what caused the end-Triassic extinction, although most scientists agree on a likely scenario.

Over a relatively short time period, massive volcanic eruptions from a large region known as the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) spewed forth huge amounts of lava and gas, including carbon dioxide, sulfur and methane.This sudden release of gases into the atmosphere may have created intense global warming, and acidification of the oceans, which ultimately killed off thousands of plant and animal species.

Now, researchers at MIT, Columbia University and other institutions have determined that these eruptions occurred precisely when the extinction began, providing strong evidence that volcanic activity did indeed trigger the end-Triassic extinction.

Results of the research, funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), are published this week in the journal Science.

Study shows resources giveaway in Latin America; Outdated model tramples human rights, environment

A new study reveals that governments in Latin America have returned to natural resources extraction to fuel development—while paying scant attention to the impact mining, oil exploration and other activities have on the environment or on the people who own the land. The study, which reported on both domestic and international investments, was released at the 14th Rights and Resources Initiative Dialogue on Forests, Governance, and Climate Change bringing stakeholders and indigenous, Afro-descendant and rural community leaders from 13 nations to Bogotá this week.

"We seem to have returned to an almost colonial mentality," said Margarita Florez, Executive Director, Asociación Ambiente y Sociedad, whose study reviewed the recent activities impacts of extractive activities on lands owned by Indigenous Peoples, Afro-descendants and other forest communities in Colombia, Panama and Guatemala. "Our governments are being shortsighted. They are undervaluing renewable resources such as forests and water, and are putting the rights of foreign investors before those who have lived and worked the land for generations."

Study shows wildfires' positive and negative economic impacts

Despite the disruptions they cause, large wildfires are a mixed economic bag for nearby communities, according to findings from a research project by the University of Oregon's Ecosystem Workforce Program and its collaborators.
Wildfires disrupt the lives of workers, employers and families, and lead to longer-term instability in local labor markets, the project funded by Joint Fire Science Program found. But on the flip side of the coin, countywide employment and wages increase in some sectors during the wildfires, often mitigating the short-term employment disruptions wildfires cause.

Airborne Technology Helps Manage Elephants

For years, scientists have debated how big a role elephants play in toppling trees in South African savannas. Tree loss is a natural process, but it is increasing in some regions, with cascading effects on the habitat for many other species. Using high resolution 3-D mapping, Carnegie scientists have for the first time quantitatively determined tree losses across savannas of Kruger National Park. They found that elephants are the primary agents—their browsing habits knock trees over at a rate averaging 6 times higher than in areas inaccessible to them. The research also found that elephants prefer toppling trees in the 16-to-30 foot (5-8 m) range, with annual losses of up to 20% in these height classes. The findings, published in Ecology Letters, bolster our understanding of elephant conservation needs and their impacts, and the results could help to improve savanna management practices.

How iron reacts in the environment?

Using ultrafast X-rays, scientists for the first time have watched how quickly electrons hop their way through rust nanoparticles.This gives key insight to how iron oxide, one of the most abundant minerals in soil, behaves and alters the condition of soil and water around it. This also demonstrates the potential of time-resolved X-ray and optical methods to study chemical reactions at the subnanoscale in other semiconductors.

Scientists have long known that certain minerals, redox active ions and biological proteins can exchange electrons to initiate chemical changes in the mineral. But the process of how electrons hop from atom to atom inside a nanoparticle to facilitate change has been too fast to see until now. The same process controls charge collection in solar energy devices involving metal oxides, and thus this work may have relevance to new energy technologies.

Scientists 'read' the ash from the Icelandic volcano 2 years after its eruption

the ash cloud from the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull reached the Iberian Peninsula and brought airports to a halt all over Europe. At the time, scientists followed its paths using satellites, laser detectors, sun photometers and other instruments. Two years later they have now presented the results and models that will help to prevent the consequences of such natural phenomena.
The eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull in the south of Iceland began on the 20 March, 2010. On the 14 April it began to emit a cloud of ash that moved towards Northern and Central Europe, resulting in the closure of airspace. Hundreds of planes and millions of passengers were grounded.

Air pollution linked to diabetes and hypertension in African-American women

The incidence of type 2 diabetes and hypertension increases with cumulative levels of exposure to nitrogen oxides, according to a new study led by researchers from the Slone Epidemiology Center (SEC) at Boston University. The study, which appears online in the journal Circulation, was led by Patricia Coogan, D.Sc., associate professor of epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health and the SEC.
While it is well established that air pollution increases the risks of acute cardiovascular events such as stroke and myocardial infarction, it is not known whether exposure increases the risk of chronic diseases like diabetes and hypertension. However, emerging findings from laboratory and clinical studies suggest that air pollution may predispose to both conditions.

Benefits of new air quality rules greatly outweigh costs

A report by researchers at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health provides an expanded review of six new air quality regulations proposed or recently adopted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA). These include the first national standards for reducing dangerous emissions of mercury and other toxic pollutants from power plants. Though the cost of implementing the new regulations is estimated to be about $195 billion over the next 20 years or so, the economic, environmental and health benefits amount to well over $1 trillion, considerably outweighing the control costs, according to the report, which was issued by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a non-profit think tank based in Washington, D.C.
Patrick L. Kinney, ScD, professor of Environmental Health Sciences and director of Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health's Program on Climate and Health, and MPH candidate Amruta Nori-Sarma also examined the role that environmental justice issues play in the development of EPA regulations. The researchers further analyzed the findings in light of a recent poll conducted by the Joint Center on climate change, health and conservation behaviors.

Saving millions of lives and protecting our climate through clean cooking options

For many people in the developing world getting enough food to eat is a persistent challenge. However the challenge does not stop there. A new issue of the international journal Energy Policy details the human and environmental cost of cooking food using the only energy source available to many people, woody biomass.  
The Special Issue explores the type of decision frameworks that are needed to guide policy development for clean cooking fuels and to ensure that the provision of clean energy becomes a central component of sustainable development. Additionally, it presents a research agenda and an action agenda to facilitate the development and adoption of cleaner cooking fuels and technologies and analyses why past programs to improve access to clean cooking fuels have succeeded or failed.
Universal access to clean energy is a stated goal of the United Nations and is a key entry point for reducing emissions of black carbon and other particulates - known to negatively impact the climate. The scale of the issue and opportunity to minimise emissions through adoption of clean cooking fuels and stoves was highlighted in a new report from the UN Environment Program released on Friday 25th November and will be a focus of discussions at the UNFCCC climate talks commencing in Durban today.

Climate change will show which animals can take the heat

As climate change continues to take hold this century, which species will be able to take the heat? Researchers at Brown University, in simulations examining species and their projected range, show that animals' ability to withstand fluctuations in temperature during their climate-induced journeys will be a crucial determinant of their ultimate survival.
In a new study based on simulations examining species and their projected range, researchers at Brown University argue that whether an animal can make it to a final, climate-friendly destination isn't a simple matter of being able to travel a long way. It’s the extent to which the creatures can withstand rapid fluctuations in climate along the way that will determine whether they complete the journey.

Steep increase in global CO2 emissions despite reductions by industrialized countries

Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) – the main cause of global warming – increased by 45 % between 1990 and 2010, and reached an all-time high of 33 billion tonnes in 2010. Increased energy efficiency, nuclear energy and the growing contribution of renewable energy are not compensating for the globally increasing demand for power and transport, which is strongest in developing countries.
This increase took place despite emission reductions in industrialised countries during the same period. Even though different countries show widely variable emission trends, industrialised countries are likely to meet the collective Kyoto target of a 5.2 % reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 as a group, partly thanks to large emission reductions from economies in transition in the early nineties and more recent reductions due to the 2008-2009 recession. These figures were published today in the report "Long-term trend in global CO2 emissions," prepared by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

Deep oceans may mask global warming

Earth's deep oceans may absorb enough heat at times to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade--even in the midst of longer-term warming. This according to a new analysis led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
The study, based on computer simulations of global climate, points to ocean layers deeper than 1,000 feet as the main location of the "missing heat" during periods such as the past decade when global air temperatures showed little trend.
The findings also suggest that several more intervals like this can be expected over the next century, even as the trend toward overall warming continues.
"We will see global warming go through hiatus periods in the future," says NCAR's Gerald Meehl, lead author of the study.

NASA's Aqua satellite sees tropical storms Nate, Lee, fires

Tropical Storm Nate is perched to make landfall in Mexico this weekend, and warnings are in effect. Nate is one of three major weather events around the Gulf of Mexico today, and NASA's Aqua satellite captured all three in one image.
Raging wildfires are occurring in Texas while the remnant clouds from Tropical Storm Lee in the northern Gulf of Mexico were also seen by Aqua.One satellite image taken by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured the two tropical systems and smoke from the Texas fires on Sept. 8 at 19:05 UTC (3:05 p.m. EDT). The image shows Tropical Storm Nate was still lingering along the eastern Mexico coastline, the western edge of the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee (around a low pressure area centered over Indiana) appeared in the northern Gulf and smoke plumes from Texas wildfires.